Arbitrage
Learn how buying opposite outcomes below their combined $1 payout can lock in a potential profit
What is arbitrage?
Arbitrage means buying opposite outcomes in the same market at prices that add up to less than their combined payout.
For a standard Yes/No market, one side will settle at $1.00 and the other at $0.00. If you own the same number of Yes and No shares, each matched pair will therefore pay a total of $1.00, no matter which outcome wins.
The basic idea
If the executable price of Yes + the executable price of No + estimated fees is below $1.00, the difference may be an arbitrage opportunity.
On Kuest, arbitrage can combine one outcome from Kuest with the opposite outcome from Polymarket. The arbitrage panel compares both possible combinations and shows the best currently available opportunity.
A simple example
Imagine the same market has these executable prices across the two venues:
Buy No · $0.67
You buy No shares on the venue offering them at 67¢.
Buy Yes · $0.28
You buy the same number of Yes shares on the other venue at 28¢.
Combined cost · $0.95
One matched Yes + No pair costs 95¢ before fees.
Resolution payout · $1.00
One side pays $1 and the other pays $0, for a combined $1 payout.
The price difference is 5¢ per matched pair before fees:
If Yes wins, the Yes shares pay approximately $2,631.58 and the No shares pay $0. If No wins, the No shares pay approximately $2,631.58 and the Yes shares pay $0. The combined payout is the same in either case.
Always use the estimate shown in the order panel
The example above ignores fees and assumes every share fills at the displayed price. Your real quote uses current executable prices, available liquidity, estimated fees, wallet balances, and the exact number of shares that can be matched.
How an arbitrage trade works
Open the Arbitrage panel
On an eligible market, switch the order panel from regular trading to Arbitrage. If there is no profitable executable combination, the panel will say that no trade is available right now.
Connect and fund both sides
Make sure the wallets shown for Kuest and Polymarket are connected and have enough funds. Part of your total amount is spent on each venue.
Review the quote
Check which outcome will be bought on each venue, the amount allocated to each side, estimated fees, matched shares, payout, and estimated profit.
Choose an amount
Enter a total amount or use one of the available presets. The panel limits the trade to the amount that can be matched on both sides at profitable prices.
Sign both orders
You will be asked to sign the Kuest order and the Polymarket order. Both orders must fill for the position to be fully matched.
Hold through resolution
After both sides fill, you own equal shares of opposite outcomes. At resolution, claim the winning position on the venue where it was purchased.
What to check before signing
- Combined cost: the two outcomes and estimated fees must remain below their combined $1 payout.
- Matched shares: Yes and No quantities should be equal. The displayed payout is based on this matched amount.
- Liquidity: large trades can consume multiple prices in the order books, reducing or removing the opportunity.
- Balances: both venues need enough funds for their side of the trade.
- Estimated profit: use the final preview, not only the headline prices you first noticed.
Two orders are involved
Arbitrage is only locked in after both orders fill. Prices or liquidity can change while you review and sign. If one order succeeds and the other fails, you may temporarily hold only one outcome and have directional market exposure. Read the status message and check both venues before trying again.